A Determination of number of arriving tourists and night spent in accommodation relations with economic growth: The case of Turkey

  • Seda Karagozzeren Trakya University

Abstract

The tourism-based growth hypothesis (TLGH), which indicates that tourism is the determinant of economic growth and provides economic growth, suggests a positive relationship between tourism expenditures and economic growth. Within the context of the tourism-based growth hypothesis, it is known that several of the factors affecting tourism expenditures are the number of tourists coming to the country and the length of their stay. This study is aimed at determining the relationship with this context in 2000-2015 years with 81 provinces of data from arrivals tourist numbers and night spent in accommodation in Turkey with variables gross domestic product per capitaDepending on this purpose, the horizontal and cross-sectional dependencies of the variables are first analyzed with the CD proposed by Pesaran (2004) and the BA-LM tests proposed by Pesaran, Ullah and Yamagata (2008). According to the test results, the null hypothesis, which suggests that there are no horizontal-section dependencies, has been rejected. Then, the CIPS Panel Unit Root test, which is sensitive to horizontal-section dependency, was performed and the stationarity of the variabilities was determined. In addition, the cointegration test, which is sensitive to horizontal-section dependency, was applied and a cointegration relationship was found between the number of arriving tourists and the length of stay and economic growth. The slope heterogeneity test results, which are sensitive to horizontal-slice dependence applied to variables, show that slope heterogeneity is present in the variables. Dynamic CCEMGE (Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimator) model was used to test the TLGH hypothesis because our variables have horizontal-section dependencies on one side and slope heterogeneity on the other. Dynamic CCEMG model results indicate that the results of TLGH hypothesis apply to the provinces of Turkey. Moreover, the relationship between the number of tourists and the length of stay and economic growth varies according to the results of the study.

References

Arslan, A. (2008). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(24), 1-12.
Atılgan, E., Ertuğrul, H., & Basar, D. (2017). Sağlık Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri için Bir Uygulama. Internatıoanl Economics Research and Financial Markets Congress Proceedings (s. 423-430). Edirne: IERFM.
Bahar , O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 13(2), 137-150.
Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 877-884.
Barutçugil, İ. (1998). Turizm İşletmeciliği. İstanbul: Beta Basın Yayın Dağıtım A.Ş.
Brida, J., Sanchez Carrera, E., & Risso, W. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
Chang, C.-L., Khamkaew, T., & McAleer, M. (09.08.2018). Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1583242. adresinden alınmıştır
Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 188(2), 393-420.
Cortes-Jimenez, İ., Pulina, M., Prunera, C., & Artis , M. (2009). Tourism and Exports as a means of Growth. Research Institute of Applied Economics, 1-28.
Çağlayan, E., Güriş, B., & Öskönbayev, Z. (2012). Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti için Geçerliliğinin Analizi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(2), 105-122.
Kaya, A., & Canlı, B. (2013). Türkiye’ye Yönelik Uluslararası Turizm Talebinin Belirleyenleri: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 43-54.
Pesaran, M. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. ESRC Working Paper.
Pesaran, M. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
Pesaran, M., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
Pesaran, M., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
TÜİK.(01.06.2018). https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/bolgeselistatistik/degiskenlerUzerindenSorgula.do?durum=acKapa&menuNo=273&altMenuGoster=1&secilenDegiskenListesi=.
UNWTO (World Tourism Organization). (09.08.2018). Annual Report 2017. www.unwto.org. adresinden alınmıştır
Published
2018-08-30
How to Cite
KARAGOZZEREN, Seda. A Determination of number of arriving tourists and night spent in accommodation relations with economic growth: The case of Turkey. PRIZREN SOCIAL SCIENCE JOURNAL, [S.l.], v. 2, n. 2, p. 210-224, aug. 2018. ISSN 2616-387X. Available at: <http://prizrenjournal.com/index.php/PSSJ/article/view/47>. Date accessed: 19 nov. 2018.