A Determination of number of arriving tourists and night spent in accommodation relations with economic growth: The case of Turkey
The tourism-based growth hypothesis (TLGH), which indicates that tourism is the determinant of economic growth and provides economic growth, suggests a positive relationship between tourism expenditures and economic growth. Within the context of the tourism-based growth hypothesis, it is known that several of the factors affecting tourism expenditures are the number of tourists coming to the country and the length of their stay. This study is aimed at determining the relationship with this context in 2000-2015 years with 81 provinces of data from arrivals tourist numbers and night spent in accommodation in Turkey with variables gross domestic product per capitaDepending on this purpose, the horizontal and cross-sectional dependencies of the variables are first analyzed with the CD proposed by Pesaran (2004) and the BA-LM tests proposed by Pesaran, Ullah and Yamagata (2008). According to the test results, the null hypothesis, which suggests that there are no horizontal-section dependencies, has been rejected. Then, the CIPS Panel Unit Root test, which is sensitive to horizontal-section dependency, was performed and the stationarity of the variabilities was determined. In addition, the cointegration test, which is sensitive to horizontal-section dependency, was applied and a cointegration relationship was found between the number of arriving tourists and the length of stay and economic growth. The slope heterogeneity test results, which are sensitive to horizontal-slice dependence applied to variables, show that slope heterogeneity is present in the variables. Dynamic CCEMGE (Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimator) model was used to test the TLGH hypothesis because our variables have horizontal-section dependencies on one side and slope heterogeneity on the other. Dynamic CCEMG model results indicate that the results of TLGH hypothesis apply to the provinces of Turkey. Moreover, the relationship between the number of tourists and the length of stay and economic growth varies according to the results of the study.
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